Analysing Current Drought Conditions in North-East Tanzania
A failure of the Vuli rains (rainy season in October, November, and December in north-east Tanzania) can be a trigger for a severe drought (e.g. 2009 and 2011) with significant impacts on the livelihoods of the affected regions.
The current season starts off from a drought year 2016 and has started with poor Vuli rains and a tendency towards a La Niña event. All hopes now rely on the second rainy season (Masika).
The Figure below shows monthly average eNDVI (light green color), monthly precipitation sum (P, orange color) and the multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for the Region of Tanga in Tanzania. Negative MEI (red ribbon) indicate La Niña events and positive MEI (green ribbon) indicate El Niño events.
Data Sources: https://earlywarning.usgs.gov/fews and https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/